2012 saw a double dip recession in the UK driven by huge uncertainty in the wake of the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis together with a general slowdown in the global markets. 2012 was a year of government bailouts for failed European banks together with significant quantitative easing (or money printing) in the US, UK and Europe.
2013 offers the prospect of a triple dip recession in the UK which is believed to have come out of the double dip recession as a result of the boost provided by the Olympics. Many economists are predicting further austerity in both the UK and the US which are suffering from huge budget deficits. We can also expect further quantitative easing (QE) from the Western Economies. The Fed and the ECB have already indicated that they will use unlimited QE to battle the slowdown in their economies. The Bank of Japan have also given signals that they will embark on significant QE measures in order to debase the Yen and boost the competitiveness of local manufacturers.
The UK has preserved its AAA credit rating and government borrowing costs are at near record lows. However, unless the UK government can demonstrate progress towards cutting their budget deficit, there is a risk that the AAA rating will be downgraded this year. The UK continues to import much more than it exports and is spending beyond its means.
Currently, UK consumers and the government are focused on repaying their debt. This together with a climate of rising energy and food prices together with downward pressure on wages means it is likely we will have to wait a considerable time before seeing a meaningful recovery in the UK.
Both the UK and Europe are expected to stall with little or no growth anticipated in 2013. The US is expected to be in a better position due to its strong manufacturing base and the economy is expected to show signs of recovery in 2013. This is despite the concerns over its ‘fiscal cliff’ with tax rises and spending cuts anticipated.
Interest rates continue to be held at historically low levels both in the UK and the US. The weak economies are unlikely to cope with a rise in interest rates and so many analysts believe that interest rates are unlikely to rise over the next 12 months. However, the inflationary pressure created by quantitative easing could well generate increased pressure to raise interest rates which must be watched closely by the central banks.
Bloomberg believe that the US dollar will strengthen over the next 12 months. Sterling is believed by many to be overvalued and will be subject to downward pressure in 2013. The Chinese Renminbi will continue to appreciate in line with the growing Chinese economy.
The Eurozone faces significant challenges over the next 12 months. Mario Draghi has successfully bailed out some of the ailing banks in Spain, Greece and Cyprus and has promised to do “whatever it takes” to protect the Euro. Many analysts believe that a country could leave the Euro within 5 years although few believe that this will happen in 2013. No doubt there will be continued debate surrounding Greece and Spain this year. Fears of an eventual break up of the Eurozone have abated for now and many have adopted a wait and see approach. At some point we will see whether Germany really will stand behind the entire region.
Small businesses should be braced for a period of consolidation. The market will favour well managed businesses this year and could offer significant opportunities for expansion as weaker competitors are driven out of the marketplace. Europe is regarded by many as cheap and may well give rise to investment opportunities. Exporters to the US could also benefit from the expected rise in the value of the Dollar.